📌 UPDATE — May 11, 2026
Piper Sandler's Alex Potter has expanded his Tesla bull case beyond FSD, now arguing that Tesla's Optimus humanoid robot is essentially valued at zero within the current ~$400/share stock price. In a new note, Potter wrote: "At $400/share, we think investors can buy Optimus for free" — suggesting the market has yet to price in the robot's long-term revenue potential at all. Potter also noted that traditionally relevant valuation metrics are becoming increasingly less important as FSD subscriber growth and emerging ventures like Optimus take center stage. The comments reinforce a broader shift in how Piper Sandler frames Tesla — less as an automaker and more as a multi-platform technology company whose biggest value drivers may not yet appear on a standard income statement.
Wall Street is starting to price in Tesla's autonomous future in a serious way. Piper Sandler analyst Alex Potter has published a new model projecting Tesla will reach 10.6 million FSD subscriptions by 2030 — and an eye-catching 95 million by 2038. For context, Tesla currently sits at roughly 470,000 FSD subscribers, meaning Potter is forecasting a 200x increase over the next twelve years.
Potter also sees Tesla crossing $1 trillion in annual revenue around 2037 — a milestone that would place it among the most valuable companies in corporate history by top line alone. The projection is built on the assumption that FSD subscriptions scale dramatically as Tesla's autonomous driving technology matures and the robotaxi network expands.
The gap between 470,000 current subscribers and 10.6 million by 2030 is the number worth watching in the near term. That four-year ramp would require Tesla to dramatically accelerate FSD adoption — likely dependent on continued improvements to the unsupervised FSD product, regulatory approvals in key markets, and the commercial launch of the Cybercab robotaxi fleet. Potter's 2038 figure of 95 million subs essentially assumes FSD becomes a mainstream feature rather than an enthusiast add-on, which is a bold but not implausible bet if full autonomy arrives on schedule.
For Tesla owners, the practical takeaway is that Wall Street's conviction in FSD's long-term value is growing — and that pressure on Tesla to deliver on its autonomous driving roadmap has never been higher. Whether Potter's timeline proves accurate will depend heavily on what Tesla ships in software over the next 24 months. The next major FSD milestone to watch is unsupervised operation at scale; everything in this model flows from that.
Marcus covers Tesla's software releases, FSD rollouts, and OTA changes. Background in automotive engineering. Based in Austin.
Sources verified at publish time. Spotted an inaccuracy? Email editorial@basenor.com.
