📌 UPDATE — June 8, 2026
In a notable contradiction, Ontario has cancelled its provincial Starlink contract with SpaceX — yet the Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan continues to reap massive returns from its SpaceX equity stake. The divergence highlights how SpaceX's overall financial strength remains largely insulated from regional Starlink contract decisions. Commentators on X have pointed out the irony: the same province walking away from a Starlink deal is simultaneously benefiting enormously from its pension fund's early bet on the company. SpaceX's business model, anchored by launch services, government contracts, and Starlink's global subscriber base, appears robust enough that losing individual regional deals has little impact on investor returns.
"Crazy that Ontario cancelled their Starlink deal, but the teachers pension plan is making a fortune on SpaceX" — @wholemars, June 8, 2026
A single early bet on Elon Musk's rocket company is about to pay off in a way that pension fund managers rarely get to celebrate. The Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan (OTPP) is sitting on a potential $11.6 billion gain from an initial investment of approximately $300 million made in SpaceX back in 2019 — a return that would make it the most successful investment in the fund's entire history.
How a $300 Million Gamble Became a Generational Trade
In 2019, OTPP's newly launched Teachers' Venture Growth (TVG) division — established in April of that year — made its inaugural investment: roughly $220 million USD (approximately $306 million CAD) into SpaceX. At the time, SpaceX was already the world's leading private launch provider, but the scale of what it would become was far from certain.
Seven years later, SpaceX has filed its IPO prospectus with the SEC (submitted May 20, 2026), is targeting a Nasdaq listing under the ticker SPCX, and is aiming for a debut around June 12, 2026 at a share price of $135. Analysts project the IPO could value SpaceX at over $1.75 trillion — with some estimates reaching as high as $2 trillion — which would make it the largest stock market debut in history, potentially raising between $75 billion and $80 billion.
At the $1.75 trillion target valuation, OTPP's original stake alone could be worth $11.6 billion USD. That figure doesn't even account for the additional investments the fund has made in SpaceX since 2019, as OTPP has confirmed it increased its position multiple times on the back of the company's strong performance.
The Numbers Behind the Record Return
| Metric | Figure |
|---|---|
| Initial OTPP investment (2019) | ~$220M USD (~$306M CAD) |
| Projected value at IPO target valuation | $11.6B USD |
| SpaceX target IPO valuation | $1.75T+ USD |
| IPO ticker / exchange | SPCX / Nasdaq |
| Target IPO date | ~June 12, 2026 |
| TVG portfolio fair value (2025) | $15.3B CAD (up from $10.4B in 2024) |
| TVG 2025 rate of return | 30.2% |
The TVG portfolio's 30.2% rate of return in 2025 — driven heavily by SpaceX's surging private-market valuation — tells its own story. The fair value of TVG's net investments climbed from $10.4 billion CAD in 2024 to $15.3 billion CAD in 2025, a jump that reflects just how dramatically SpaceX's trajectory has accelerated heading into its public debut.
Not Cashing Out — At Least Not Yet
Despite the staggering paper gain, OTPP isn't rushing to the exit. Like most institutional shareholders in a newly public company, the fund will almost certainly be subject to a standard 180-day lock-up agreement preventing stock sales after trading begins June 12. More tellingly, OTPP has signaled it views SpaceX as a long-term hold rather than a trade to flip at the IPO window.
That patience has already paid off handsomely. The fund first invested when SpaceX was a private company with an uncertain commercial future; it now holds a stake in what could become the most valuable aerospace company ever to list on a public exchange. Whether the final IPO valuation lands at $1.75 trillion, $1.8 trillion, or closer to the $2 trillion initially targeted, the return on that 2019 conviction bet is going to be extraordinary by any measure — and a case study in long-horizon venture investing that pension funds will be studying for decades.
Sarah focuses on Tesla Energy, SpaceX missions, and the broader Musk AI portfolio. Former data analyst in clean energy. Based in San Francisco.
Sources verified at publish time. Spotted an inaccuracy? Email editorial@basenor.com.
