Wells Fargo has put hard numbers on what many already suspected: Starlink is on a trajectory to become one of the most valuable connectivity businesses on the planet. The bank's latest SpaceX forecast, shared by Sawyer Merritt on September 24, projects 47 million Starlink subscribers by 2028 and revenues nearly tripling from this year to the end of that period. Here's what the forecast says, where it sits relative to other analyst views, and what it actually means for SpaceX's broader ambitions.
What exactly is Wells Fargo forecasting?
According to the bank's latest SpaceX note, Starlink will reach 47 million subscribers by the end of 2028. On the revenue side, Wells Fargo sees SpaceX generating $19 billion this year, scaling to $30 billion by end of 2027, and hitting $51 billion by end of 2028. That's roughly a 2.7x revenue increase in just two years — a growth rate that would be extraordinary for a business of this size. Wells Fargo initiated coverage on SpaceX in July 2026 with an overweight rating and a $230 price target, so this forecast is part of a broader bullish thesis on the company.
How does the subscriber number compare to other analyst projections?
The 47 million figure sits in the middle of the analyst range. Some forecasts from late 2025 projected only 36 million subscribers by 2028, while a Starlink supplier has reportedly projected 100 million users by that same year. Bull-case scenarios from other firms see Starlink clearing 45 million by 2030 — meaning Wells Fargo is actually more aggressive on timing than some of those models. For context, Starlink's active subscriber base stood at 10.3 million as of March 2026, so reaching 47 million by end of 2028 implies roughly 4.5x growth in under three years.
How does the revenue forecast compare across Wall Street?
There's a wide spread here. Quilty Space projects Starlink's 2026 revenue at $20 billion, broadly in line with Wells Fargo's $19 billion estimate for this year. Bloomberg Intelligence, however, is far more conservative — estimating just $9 billion for SpaceX's Starlink segment in 2026. On the optimistic end, firms including Deutsche Bank, RBC, and Morgan Stanley have modeled Starlink's total connectivity revenue reaching $72 billion to $121 billion by 2030, which would make Wells Fargo's $51 billion by 2028 look conservative by comparison. The range reflects genuine uncertainty about how fast Starlink can penetrate enterprise, government, and mobile carrier markets.
What's driving the growth assumption — is this just consumer broadband?
Consumer broadband is the base, but Wells Fargo's thesis goes further. The bank has flagged Starlink as a significant competitive threat to traditional telecom players like AT&T and Verizon, particularly in broadband and potential wireless services. Wells Fargo analyst Steven Cahall has specifically highlighted the possibility of Starlink MVNO (mobile virtual network operator) arrangements — assigning a 40% probability to a Verizon partnership and a 20% chance of an AT&T deal. If either materializes, it would add a meaningful revenue stream on top of direct subscriber fees. The bank also expects 99 Starship launches through 2028 to support Starlink's network expansion, suggesting the infrastructure buildout is a core part of the growth model.
What does this mean for SpaceX's overall valuation story?
SpaceX generated $19.3 billion in revenue over the last twelve months, with analysts including Wells Fargo forecasting roughly 95% growth this year. If the $51 billion target is hit by 2028, SpaceX would be operating at a revenue run rate that rivals some of the largest technology companies in the world. The overweight rating and $230 price target Wells Fargo assigned at initiation in July reflect confidence that the market hasn't fully priced in Starlink's addressable opportunity — particularly as the service expands beyond North America and into aviation, maritime, and direct-to-cell use cases.
Whether 47 million subscribers proves conservative or optimistic will depend heavily on how quickly Starlink can close deals with mobile carriers and push into underserved international markets. The next major data point to watch is SpaceX's subscriber count update — the last confirmed figure of 10.3 million as of March 2026 is already several months stale, and any mid-year disclosure could move the needle on these forecasts considerably. For more on the SpaceX business, see our SpaceX coverage.
Sources & reporting notes
The links below identify the material source records used for this report.
- @SawyerMerritt on X (2026-09-24T14:24:40.000Z) — Direct source
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