The narrative that China's reusable rocket programs are closing in on SpaceX gets louder every few months. But Liu Haifeng, an industry insider and investor in Chinese launch startup Huanyu Aerospace, pushed back hard this week — telling audiences that China's launch costs remain roughly ten times higher than SpaceX's. The raw numbers from verified sources back him up, and they're worth examining closely.
1. Falcon 9's marginal cost is $15–20M per launch
The number that makes SpaceX structurally untouchable right now is the marginal cost of a reused Falcon 9 booster: an estimated $15–20 million per flight, according to industry analysts. The list price for a dedicated Falcon 9 launch sits at $74 million as of early 2026, but the internal economics are far leaner. That gap between cost and price is what funds Starship development — and it's a moat that took over a decade of iterative reuse to build.
2. SpaceX's per-kilogram rate to LEO: ~$3,070
On a payload-efficiency basis, a reusable Falcon 9 delivers mass to Low Earth Orbit at roughly $3,070 per kilogram. For context, SpaceX's Transporter rideshare program goes even lower for smaller payloads — $7,000/kg to sun-synchronous orbit in bulk, with entry-level slots starting at $350,000 for 50 kg. These prices have reshaped the entire commercial launch market over the past five years.
3. China's best current rate: $4,350–$6,900/kg — and that's expendable
CAS Space's Lijian-2, which debuted in April 2026, launched at a non-reusable price of 30,000 yuan per kilogram — approximately $4,350/kg at current exchange rates. Its predecessor, the Lijian-1, ran closer to $6,900/kg as recently as October 2025. Critically, neither figure reflects reusable operations. CAS Space has targeted reusability for the Lijian-2 by 2027, but until that milestone is hit and validated at scale, these are the real-world numbers customers pay.
4. LandSpace's Zhuque-3 just landed its booster — but landing ≠ cost parity
On the same day Liu Haifeng's comments circulated, LandSpace's Zhuque-3 became China's first privately developed orbital rocket to successfully recover its first-stage booster on land — a genuine technical milestone. The Zhuque-3 is Falcon 9-class in size and uses a stainless-steel airframe with liquid oxygen-methane engines, a configuration that theoretically supports competitive economics. But a single successful recovery is the starting line, not the finish. SpaceX flew Falcon 9 boosters dozens of times before the cost curve bent meaningfully. China's programs are at flight one.
5. Starship could widen the gap to $100–$500/kg
While Chinese firms are working toward reusability parity with today's Falcon 9, SpaceX is already moving the goalposts. Starship began deploying operational payloads in 2026, and at mature flight rates the vehicle is projected to bring per-kilogram costs down to $100–$500 — a figure that would make the current 10x gap look modest by comparison. A single Starship launch contracted for the Starlab Space Station was reported at $90 million in March 2026, equating to roughly $600/kg for an expendable 150-ton payload. As reusability matures, that number drops further.
Liu Haifeng's assessment isn't a dismissal of Chinese aerospace ambition — the Zhuque-3 recovery is real progress, and the pace of development from firms like LandSpace and CAS Space has been faster than most Western analysts predicted. But cost efficiency at scale is a compounding advantage. SpaceX's head start isn't measured in months; it's measured in hundreds of flights, refined manufacturing, and a reuse cadence that no competitor has yet matched. Closing a 10x cost gap while the leader is simultaneously scaling Starship is a different challenge than simply building a rocket that can land.
🚀 Following the Starship program? See every test flight, official outcome and the next launch window in our SpaceX Starship Tracker.
Sources & reporting notes
The links below identify the material source records used for this report.
- @ray4tesla on X (2026-08-19T16:59:12.000Z) — Direct source
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